考虑边境站延误风险的中欧班列运输路径决策

Route Decision-making of China Railway Express Considering Border Delay Risk

为选择高效安全的中欧班列运输路径、管理运输风险,针对不同类型边境口岸节点延误时间特征,以威布尔分布刻画其延误时间的概率分布,并基于期望损失理论提出一种新的风险价值测算方法。将延误风险价值作为一种运输成本,构建“风险-时间-费用”综合运输成本最小的中欧班列路径效用模型。通过深度优先遍历算法求解从成都到柏林的中欧班列运输不同价值特性货物的路径选择方案。结果表明:高价值货物对延误风险更敏感,货物贬值速率对延误成本影响更小;最优路径的平均风险延误率为0.46,边境节点延误风险较高;单位货物价值为300万元时,最优路径的边境延误成本是运输运费的1.2倍。对沿线边境站点的延误风险监测与应急处理需要引起运输企业和铁路管理部门的重视。

To choose an efficient and safe transportation route and manage the transport risk for China Railway Express(CRE),a Weibull distribution was implemented to measure the probability distribution of delay time,according to the delay time features of different types of borders.And a novel risk value measurement was constructed based on the expected loss theory.Considering the minimum comprehensive transportation cost of risk,time,and cost,a new route utility model was established.A depth-first traversal algorithm was used to solve the route selection of goods with different value of CRE from Chengdu to Berlin.The results show that high-value goods are more sensitive to border delay,and the rate of cargo loss has less impact on the delay cost;the delay risk of the optimal route is high with a 0.46 average delay rate;when the unit value of goods is 3 million yuan,the border delay cost of the optimal route is 1.2 times of the transportation cost.Attentions need to be paid on monitoring delay risk and dealing with an emergency of borders by related stakeholders.