陆丰市蕉坑(二)水文站蒸发动态变化趋势分析

Analysis on Dynamic Trend of Evaporation in Jiaokeng(II)Hydrometric Station of Lufeng City

该文运用数理统计法、滑动平均法、spearman秩相关系数法和曼-肯德尔检验法,对陆丰市蕉坑(二)水文站1970—2020年蒸发特征值变化、动态变化趋势等方面进行分析研究,得出该站蒸发量在时间序列上呈减少趋势,突变年为1984年,其后的下降趋势越来越显著;分季度来看,第3季度蒸发量最大,第1季度蒸发量最小,各季度蒸发量序列总体均呈现显著下降趋势。研究结果可为当地水资源评价及分析工作提供技术支撑。

By using mathematical statistics,Moving-average model,Spearman rank correlation Coefficient and Man-Kendal test,this paper analyzes and studies the changes and trends of evaporation characteristic values from 1970 to 2020 at JiaoKeng(II)hydrological station,Lufeng,the results show that the evaporation of the station has a decreasing trend in the time series,the abrupt year is 1984,and the decreasing trend is more and more obvious after that;In terms of seasons,the evaporation in the third quarter was the largest,and the evaporation in the first quarter was the smallest.The series of evaporation in all seasons showed a significant downward trend.The results can provide technical support for the evaluation and analysis of local water resources.