RCEP背景下印度对中国贸易逆差及合作潜力

Analyzing on China-India Trade Imbalance and Potential for Economic Cooperation under RCEP

《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)虽已签署,而印度出于大额贸易逆差、产业保护等方面的考虑终未重返。印度对外货物贸易逆差常年在千亿美元以上水平,其中超过30%源于中国。在新冠肺炎疫情冲击全球经济的背景下,印度贸易保护主义加剧,频频对华发起贸易调查,并致力于建立本地产业链与供应链,中印两国贸易面临"脱钩"风险。基于印度对华贸易逆差现状以及供应链、价值链和产业基础等视角,印度供应链稳定性较差,进口高度依赖中国原材料,而出口则面临终端消费市场波动的"长鞭效应"。同时,印度加工贸易出口从价值链中的获益有限,本土制造业又难以满足国内需求,从而进一步增加了对中国进口需求,致使对中国贸易逆差不断扩大。结合中国在RCEP中的降税承诺,分析可扩大中印贸易规模、改善贸易失衡的潜力产品,对于缓和中印两国经贸冲突并促使印度重返RCEP有所裨益。

The "Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement"(RCEP) has been signed without India, due to India’s trade deficit and the protection of local manufacturing. India’s trade deficit has been above $100 billion for years, more than 30% of which originated in China.While the COVID-19 hit the global economy, India’s trade protectionism has increasing, frequently launched trade investigations against China, and attempted to establish local industrial chain. China-India economic relations face the risk of "decoupling". Based on the analysis of ChinaIndia balance of trade in 2014-2019, it is concluded that India’s supply chain faces lack of stability, its exports are exposed to the "bullwhip effect" of fluctuations in the consumer market, and imports are highly dependent on China.India’s processing trade gains limited benefits of participating in the value chain, and the domestic manufacturing industry is difficult to meet the domestic consumption, which further increases the import to China. Based on China’s commitment in goods in RCEP, this paper analyzes the potential products that can expand the trade scale and improve the trade imbalance between China and India, and puts forward policy suggestions on easing the economic and trade conflicts between China and India and promoting India to return to RCEP.