我国货币政策非线性调控模式研究

A Study of the Non-Linear Adjustment Mode of China’s Monetary Policy

通过构建考虑经济增长、物价稳定和房价平稳的多目标调控模型,从非线性调控模式的视角对我国货币政策进行考察,结果发现,我国货币政策的调控模式依赖于GDP增长率的实现程度、对通货膨胀的管控效果以及房价增长率的变动幅度,表现出多目标动态轮换关注的非线性调控模式。具体而言,我国货币政策对经济增长和物价稳定分别具有正向和负向的非对称偏好且对通货膨胀的调控力度不足,对房价的调控具有正向的非对称偏好且较依赖历史房价增速信息,这使得房价上涨产生了较强的惯性。这意味着改变货币政策的非对称调控偏好,特别是加大对通货膨胀上涨的调控力度,同时引导公众降低对房价增速的预期并加强对房价过快上涨的调控力度,对于提升我国货币政策的调控效果具有重要的现实意义。

From the perspective of non-linear adjustment mode, this paper examines China’s monetary policy through constructing a multi-objective adjustment model that takes economic growth, price stability and housing price stability into consideration. The findings show that the adjustment mode for China’s monetary policies depends on the realization of GDP growth rate, the control effectiveness on inflation and the changing range of housing prices growth rate, which reflects a non-linear adjustment mode with multi-objective dynamic rotation attention. Specifically, China’s monetary policy has a positive and negative asymmetric preference for economic growth and price stability respectively,and it has insufficient strength in adjusting and controlling the inflation. It has positive asymmetric preference for the control of housing prices and relies more on historical housing prices rising information, which attributes to the rather strong inertia of the increasing housing prices. These findings imply that it is of great realistic significance to change the asymmetric adjustment preference of the monetary policy, especially enhancing the adjusting and controlling strength on the inflation, and at the same time guide the public to lower the expectation of the rising of housing prices and strengthen the control over the precipitous rise of housing prices, so as to improve the effect of China’s monetary policy.