中国绿色增长综合评价指标体系的构建及实证

Construction and Empirical Analysis of China’s Green Growth Comprehensive Evaluation Index System

为解决中国经济增长绿色化程度的综合评价问题,精选国内外27套环境经济相关指标体系合成评价指标库,通过5轮筛选确定39个末级指标构成中国绿色增长评价指标库;结合初级指标筛选结果、OECD最新的绿色增长概念框架关键因子、中国经济资源环境问题和绿色增长转型要求,从自然资产基础、绿色经济投入水平、污染物排放强度、资源能源效率、资源环境质量5个维度设计评价指标体系,运用主成分分析法计算指标权重,提出综合评价模型,并对2004—2018年中国31个省份绿色增长进行综合评价。结果显示:研究期间中国31个省份绿色增长呈现由稳定增长期、调整增长期到快速增长期的逐渐增强趋势,国家宏观层面调整能源产业结构、开发新能源以及发展循环经济、低碳经济等政策对缓解经济资源环境问题、提高绿色增长程度效果显著。

In order to solve the problem of comprehensive evaluation of the degree of green growth in China,this paper synthesizes evaluation index database by selecting 27 sets of environmental and economic related index system at home and abroad,determines 39 final indicators to form China’s green growth evaluation index base;further combined with the screening results for primary indicators,the latest green growth concept framework key factors from OECD,the latest key factors of green growth conceptual framework,and China’s economic resources and environmental problems and green growth transformation requirements,the paper designs the evaluation index system from natural asset base,green economy investment level,pollutant emission intensity,resource and energy efficiency,resource and environmental quality,uses principal component analysis method to calculate index weight,makes a comprehensive evaluation of green growth in 31 provinces in China from 2004 to 2018.The results show that during the study period,the green growth of 31 provinces in China shows a gradual increase trend from stable growth period,adjusted growth period to rapid growth period,the national macro-level adjustment of the energy industry structure,the development of new energy,the development of circular economy,low-carbon economy and other policies to alleviate economic resources and environmental problems,improve the degree of green growth has a remarkable effect.