多源模式资料在湖南省一次防雹作业中的应用

The application of various model data in a hail prevention operation in Hunan province

研究旨在提高冰雹预报的时效性和准确度,制定科学合理的防雹作业方案。2017年5月3—4日在湖南省南部发生了1次强对流天气过程,过程发生前24 h,利用欧洲中心细网格模式初步预判此次强对流天气过程发生的时间、区域。结合人工影响云模式GRAPES_CAMS预报的云宏微观物理量,了解云系的发展程度和演变趋势,判断降水机制,确定播云作业的温度和高度范围,制定作业方案。临近长对流天气过程发生时刻,利用雷达实况资料对作业方案进行调整,实施作业。结果显示,在传统冰雹预报手段的基础上引入人工影响云模式预报产品,能够更精准地判断适宜作业高度、作业位置、作业时间,使得作业实施更加科学、更加有针对性。作业后雷达回波减弱,作业区未收集到冰雹灾情资料,作业效果好。

The purpose of this study was to improve the timeliness and accuracy of hail prediction and to develop a scientific and rea⁃sonable hail prevention plan.On May 3—4,2017,a severe convective weather process occurred in south Hunan province.The time and region of this severe convective weather process were predicted by using the European central fine grid model 24 hours before the process.By using GRAPES_CAMS model data,the evolution trend of cloud system was knew and the precipitation mechanism was judged,then the temperature and height range of cloud seeding was determined,finally the operation plan was made.The radar fact sheet was used to adjust the operation plan.The results showed that,based on the traditional hail prediction method,the cloud model was introduced to accurately determine the appropriate operation height,operation location,operation time,made the operation more scientific,more targeted.After the operation,the radar echo was weakened,no data of hail disaster was collected in the operation area,and the operation effect was good.