基于VAR模型与中介效应模型的财政政策就业效应分析——以安徽高校毕业生为例

Analysis of the Employment Effect of Fiscal Policy Based on VAR Model and Intermediary Effect Model——Take Anhui College Graduates as an Example

高校毕业生的就业问题一直以来是国家重点关注的问题,利用财政政策促进高校毕业生就业成为近年来国家推动高校就业的重要举措与有益尝试.以安徽省推动高校毕业生就业的财政政策为研究对象,在三部门国民收入均衡下考虑政府支出乘数得出理论化影响因素及营销机制,通过构建VAR模型以及中介效应模型来验证财政政策对高校毕业生就业的影响情况,研究结果发现扩张性财政政策能够通过经济增长、消费等路径促进高校毕业生就业.

The employment of college graduates has always been a key issue of national concern.Using fiscal policies to promote the employment of college graduates has become an important measure and a useful attempt by the state to promote college employment in recent years.Taking the fiscal policy of promoting the employment of college graduates in Anhui Province as the research object,considering the government expenditure multiplier under the equilibrium of the national income of the three sectors,the theoretical influencing factors and marketing mechanism are obtained,and the VAR model and the intermediary effect model are constructed to verify the effect of fiscal policy.The impact of the employment of college graduates,the results of the study found that expansionary fiscal policies can promote the employment of college graduates through economic growth and consumption.