基于偏离-份额分析法的云南林业产业结构研究

Study on Forestry Industrial Structure in Yunnan Province Based on Shift-Share Analysis

运用偏离-份额分析法从横向(第一、二、三次产业)和纵向(2006—2018年)对云南省及中国林业产业产值数据进行处理,详细分析了云南省林业第一、二、三产业发展的具体情况。结果表明:云南省林业产业产值在2006—2018年研究期内的总体增速快于全国平均水平,其结构偏离分量变动较大,但竞争力分量优势明显。云南省林业第一产业结构偏离分量从2007年开始一直为负,说明产业结构层次不合理;第二产业的总增速高于全国平均增速,但结构层次低于全国水平,竞争力水平在2014年后逐年上升;第三产业的总增速高于全国平均水平,且整体呈现稳定上升趋势,产业结构层次优于全国水平,在全国范围内具有较强的竞争力。基于研究结论,提出优化产业结构、发挥资源优势、合理布局产业、发展数字林业的建议,以期促进云南省林业结构优化和持续健康发展。

The deviation-share analysis method is used to process the output value data of forestry industry in Yunnan Province and China from horizontal(primary,secondary and tertiary industries)and vertical(2006-2018),and the specific situation of the development of primary,secondary and tertiary forestry industries in Yunnan Province is analyzed in detail.The results show that the overall growth rate of forestry industry output value in Yunnan Province during the study period from 2006 to 2018 is faster than the national average level,and its structure deviation component changes greatly,but the competitiveness component advantage is obvious.The deviation component of forestry primary industrial structure in Yunnan Province has been negative since 2007,indicating that the level of industrial structure is unreasonable.The total growth rate of the secondary industry is higher than the national average growth rate,but the structural level is lower than the national level,and the competitiveness level has increased year by year after 2014.The overall growth rate of the tertiary industry is higher than the national average,and shows a stable upward trend as a whole,the level of industrial structure is better than the national level,and has strong competitiveness in the whole country.Based on the research conclusions,some suggestions are put forward to optimize the industrial structure,give full play to the advantages of resources,rationally distribute the industry and develop digital forestry in order to promote the optimization and sustainable and healthy development of forestry structure in Yunnan Province.