中国R&D经费投入现状及2035年预测

The Current Situation and 2035 Forecast of R&D Investment in China

研究在对中国R&D经费投入规模、强度、效率和结构进行国际比较基础上,指出了中国R&D经费投入增速下滑、结构有待优化、效率依然不高、企业科学研究占比偏低、财政科技支出R&D导向不足等特征。2018年中国R&D经费投入强度为2.19%,这一水平不仅符合当前中国经济发展阶段特征和国际R&D经费投入强度发展规律,且明显优于处于该经济发展阶段的世界主要创新型国家R&D经费投入水平。2035年中国人均GDP将会突破3万美元,处于3~3.5万美元区间,届时中国R&D经费投入强度将会达到2.7%~2.8%,基础研究占比处于12%~14%,正式跻身创新型国家前列。步入高质量发展新时代,必须将R&D经费投入摆在国家战略投入的核心位置,不断优化R&D经费投入结构,将基础研究摆在更加突出位置,突出强化企业基础研究投入力度。

The rapid development of China's economic and S&T is inseparable from the large investment of R&D funds.Based on the international comparison of the scale,efficiency and structure of R&D expenditure in China,this paper points out that the growth rate of R&D expenditure is declining,the structure needs to be optimized,the efficiency is still not high,the proportion of scientific research in enterprises is low,and the R&D orientation of financial S&T expenditure is insufficient.In 2018,China's R&D investment intensity is 2.19%,which not only conforms to the characteristics of the current stage of China's economic development and the development law of international R&D investment intensity,but also is significantly better than the world s major innovative countries in this stage of economic development.In 2035,China's GDP per capita will exceed$30000 and be in the range of$30000 and$35000.By then,China's R&D investment intensity will reach 2.7%~2.8%,basic research accounts for 12%~14%,formally ranking in the forefront of innovative countries.In the new era of high-quality development,R&D investment must be placed at the core of national strategic investment,the structure of R&D investment must be continuously optimized,basic research should be placed in a more prominent position,and the investment of enterprise basic research should be strengthened.