政策工具选择的影响因素研究——以中国光伏产业政策为例

Research on Influence Factors of Policy Instrument Selection:Taking China’s Photovoltaic Industry Policy as Example

政策工具选择的恰当与否决定着公共政策的成败好坏。以中国光伏产业政策为例,运用政策文本量化分析方法,从295份光伏政策文献中提取出政策工具选择的影响因素并进行频数统计和实证分析。研究发现,政策目标、政策系统及政策环境三类因素影响着中国光伏政策工具的选择,能源供应、能源消费、环境保护、政策执行、政策评估、产业转型升级、并网消纳条件等多种因素发挥着激励效应,法律法规、可持续发展等个别因素发挥着抑制效应。发挥激励效应的影响因素占绝大多数,表明中国光伏政策总体上是积极有为的,未来光伏政策工具的选择应在充分发挥激励效应的同时科学评估各类影响因素的抑制作用。

The proper choice of policy instruments determines the success or failure of public policies.Taking China’s PV industrial policy as an example,using the quantitative analysis method of policy text,influence factors of policy instrument selection are extracted from 295 PV policy documents,and frequency statistics and empirical analysis are carried out.The study finds that three types of factors,policy objectives,policy system,and policy environment,affect the choice of China’s PV policy tools,including energy supply,energy consumption,environmental protection,policy implementation,policy evaluation,industrial transformation and upgrading,and grid-connected consumption conditions.Factors play an incentive effect,while individual factors such as laws and regulations and sustainable development play an inhibitory effect.The overwhelming majority of the influence factors exert the incentive effect,indicating that China’s PV policy is generally positive and promising.The future selection of PV policy instruments should give full play to the incentive effect while scientifically evaluating the inhibitory effect of various influencing factors.