碳交易试点的电力碳减排政策效应研究

Research on the Policy Effect of Carbon Trading Pilot on Electric Carbon Emission Reduction

利用2003~2017年我国30个省市(西藏除外)面板数据,根据联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)提出的碳排放核算法从生产侧计算电力行业碳排放量,在此基础上,运用倾向得分匹配(PSM)和双重差分方法(DID)研究碳交易对电力碳减排的影响。结果表明:碳交易政策对电力碳排放具有明显的抑制作用,且时间越长,抑制作用越强。城市化水平、经济发展水平、发电结构、电耗强度是导致电力碳排放增加的重要因素,而企业研发水平、对外开放程度以及环境规制能够显著抑制电力碳排放的增长,产业结构对电力碳排放的影响程度有限。根据上述结论,提出推进碳交易政策实施、提升企业研发水平、加强环境规制等建议。

Based on the panel data of 30 Chinese provinces and cities(except Tibet)in the past 2003~2017 years,the carbon emission of the power industry is calculated from the production side according to the carbon emission accounting method proposed by Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).On this basis,this paper uses the propensity score matching(PSM)and difference-in-differences(DID)methods to study the impact of carbon trading on electric power carbon emission reduction.The results show that:carbon trading policy has a significant inhibitory effect on electric power carbon emissions,and the longer the time increases,the stronger the inhibitory effect is.Urbanization level,economic development level,power generation structure and power consumption intensity are the important factors leading to the increase of electric power carbon emissions.Enterprise R&D level,openness degree and degree of opening up and environmental regulation can significantly inhibit the growth of electric power carbon emissions,while the impact of industrial structure on electric power carbon emissions is limited.Based on the above conclusions,the paper puts forward some suggestions,such as promoting the implementation of carbon trading policy,improving the level of enterprise R&D,strengthening environmental regulation and so on.