青岛港水域航行安全的风险评估

Risk Assessment of Navigation Safety in Qingdao Port Waters

依据2006-2016年青岛港水域发生事故的情况,采用FSA方法对港口水域潜在风险进行评估。根据贝叶斯理论的交通流量分析和风险预测方法,经过对青岛港水域状况的综合安全评估和通航水域的饱和度分析,得出青岛港水域涨潮时间段通航拥挤但船舶航行的安全程度为合理、可降低的区间,并推理计算出青岛港发生事故先息期为31.7 d。在平流雾季节和事故多发水域,海事部门要加强监管,船舶要加强警戒并利用良好船艺规避事故的发生,从而降低青岛港船舶航行的风险。

The waters of Qingdao Port are the hub of north-south water transportation in China,bordering Japan and South Korea.Statistics of ship accidents occurred in the waters of Qingdao Port from 2006 to 2016 show that ships often encounter dangerous situations when navigating in the waters.In this study,potential risks of port water area are evaluated by FSA method,and traffic flow analysis and risk prediction method based on Bayesian theory are put forward.Through the comprehensive safety assessment of Qingdao Port water area and the saturation analysis of navigable water area,the risk degree of ship navigation in different waters of Qingdao port is obtained,the corresponding countermeasures are given to explore the risk causes,and the development trend of ship navigation safety risk in Qingdao port water area is predicted,so as to provide theoretical support for reducing the navigation risk of ships in Qingdao Port.