云南旅游产业和社会经济及生态环境协调发展研究

Coordinated Development of Yunnan Tourism Industry,Social Economy and Ecological Environment

通过构建旅游产业-社会经济-生态环境评价指标体系及协调发展度模型,对云南省2005-2018年的旅游产业-社会经济-生态环境协调发展状况进行探究,并借助GM(1,1)预测模型对2019-2023年的协调状况进行预测。结果表明:2005-2018年全省旅游产业-社会经济-生态环境的综合发展水平在波动中均呈现上升趋势,社会经济系统的速度快于其他两个系统发展;耦合度和协调发展度随时间的推移呈现逐年上升趋势;协调发展度划分类型由生态超前发展型(2005-2012)转变为经济超前发展型(2013-2018);未来五年,云南省三系统间的协调发展度将继续保持增长的态势,在2023年将会达到良好协调发展阶段。

In this study,by constructing the tourism industry,social economy,ecological environment evaluation index system and the coordinated development degree model,the coordinated development status of the tourism industry-social economy-ecological environment of Yunnan Province from 2005 to 2018 was explored,and GM(1,1)prediction model was used to predict the coordination status in 2019—2023.The results show that the comprehensive development level of tourism industry,social economy and ecological environment of the whole province is on the rise in the fluctuation,and the speed of social economic system is faster than that of the other two systems;the coupling degree and coordinated development degree are on the rise over time;The progress of Yunnan Province has shown an upward trend year by year;the division type of coordinated development has changed from ecologically advanced development(2005—2012)to economic advanced development(2013—2018);in the coming five years,Yunnan Province's three systems will continue to develop coordinately,and will reach a good coordinated development stage in 2023.