民生财政支出、居民消费与劳动就业——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Financial Expenditure on People’s Livelihood, Residents’ Consumption and Employment——Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR模型),根据2007~2017年中国29个省市自治区的面板数据,对民生财政支出、居民消费以及劳动就业三者之间的关联性进行实证分析.结果表明:民生财政支出、居民消费以及劳动就业自身均具有较强的发展惯性;居民消费与劳动就业之间相互促进,但是劳动就业受居民消费的影响程度大于其对居民消费的影响程度,两者之间的促进关系具有持久性;民生财政支出对居民消费以及劳动就业均有抑制作用,但对于居民消费的抑制作用更加显著.除此之外,居民消费和劳动就业对于民生财政支出均会出现短暂的促进作用,最终保持一定时期的抑制作用.对此提出,政府应当加快"双循环"建设,激发消费潜力;加强民生财政支出保障;推进新时代社会保障高质量发展.

Using the panel vector auto-regressive model(PVAR model), according to the panel data of 29 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2007 to 2017, in this paper, an empirical analysis on the correlation among the People’s livelihood financial expenditure, residents’ consumption and labor employment is made. The results show that People’s livelihood financial expenditure, residents’ consumption and employment have strong development inertia. Residents’ consumption and labor employment promote each other, but labor employment is more affected by residents’ consumption than by residents’ consumption, and the promotion relationship between them is persistent. people’s livelihood financial expenditure has inhibitory effect on residents’ consumption and labor employment, but the inhibitory effect on residents’ consumption is more significant.In addition, residents’ consumption and employment will have a short-term promoting effect on the people’s livelihood financial expenditure, and ultimately maintain a certain period of inhibition. It is proposed that the government should speed up the "dual circulation" construction, stimulate consumption potential, strengthen the protection of people’s livelihood financial expenditure, and promote the high-quality development of social security in the new era.