新冠肺炎疫情冲击下中国省域经济韧性发展评价

Evaluation of China's Provincial Economic Resilience Under the Impact of COVID-19 Epidemic

新冠肺炎疫情作为全球公共卫生突发事件,对中国经济发展产生了重要影响,各省在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下表现出不同的经济韧性,评价省域经济韧性发展具有重要意义。本文从抵抗力与恢复力两个角度来测度并评价我国经济韧性发展情况,研究表明:第1季度我国省域经济韧性表现为抵抗力较好,但恢复力较差;从第2季度开始大部分地区都表现出不错的恢复力,但仍未能形成较强的抵抗力,容易受疫情波动而出现波动;贵、湘、藏三省一直保持着强健型经济韧性;第2~4季度未存在浪子型经济韧性,多数地区演变为强健型经济韧性与自立型经济韧性;新疆与河南经济韧性波动变化说明了经济韧性发展是一个动态变化调整的过程,要充分保持经济韧性对危机冲击的应激性;我国区域经济韧性在抵抗力层面并未显著呈现出一定的关联性特征。

As a global public health emergency,COVID-19 has had an important impact on China's economic development.The provinces show different economic resilience under the impact of COVID-19.Evaluate the economic resilience of the provincial economy is of great significance.This paper measures and evaluates the development of China's economic resilience from the perspectives of resistance and resilience.The research shows that:in the first quarter,China's provincial economic resistance is better,but the resilience is poor;from the second quarter,most regions have good resilience,but still can not form a strong resistance,and are vulnerable to fluctuations due to the fluctuation of the epidemic situation;Guizhou,Hunan and Tibet have always maintained a strong economic resilience;in the second,third and fourth quarters,there is no prodigal economic resilience,and most regions develope into strong economic resilience and self-made economic resilience.The fluctuation of economic resilience in Xinjiang and Henan shows that the development of economic resilience is a process of dynamic change and adjustment,and the stress of economic resilience to crisis should be fully maintained;there is no significant correlation in economic resistance.