新冠肺炎疫情下中国产业关联效应损失之度量

Measurement of Linkages Loss in China Under COVID-19 Epidemic

本文试图构建一个新的模型——假设权重抽取法,对新冠肺炎疫情下中国国民经济产业关联效应受到的损失进行度量,以解决传统假设抽取法存在的不适当使用假设、过于依赖行业中间投入、未能准确反映外部冲击对产业间关联之影响等问题。使用2000~2020年中国及各一级行政区的经济运行数据及最新编制的投入产出表,本文计算得出新冠肺炎疫情下2020年中国产业关联效应的损失。结果表明,中国国民经济第1季度的总体关联效应损失度为29.01%,前2、3季度及全年的总体关联效应损失度分别缩减至21.26%、18.76%和15.63%,其中建筑业及第三产业中的住宿和餐饮业的总体关联效应损失较大。国民经济总体关联效应对比新冠肺炎疫情前依然存在相当的损失,但恢复状况相对理想。本文根据实证结果提出相应的政策建议。

This paper attempts to construct a new model,the hypothetical weights extraction method,to measure the linkage losses in China under COVID-19.This paper solves the problems which are improper use of assumptions,excessive reliance on industry intermediate input,and failure to accurately reflect the impact of external shocks on the inter-industry linkages with the traditional method.Using the economic data of China from 2000 to 2020(except Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)and the latest input-output tables,the paper obtains the linkage losses in China in 2020 under COVID-19.The results show that the total linkage loss of China in the 1st quarter was 29.01%,and the total linkage loss in the first two and three quarters,and the whole year was reduced to 21.26%,18.76%,and 15.63%separately.Among them,the construction sector and the accommodation and catering sectors have a relatively large total linkage loss.The total linkage in china still has considerable losses compared to before the COVID-19,but the recovery situation is relatively acceptable.The paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the empirical results.