基于动态海洋环境要素的航行风险评估方法研究

Navigation risk assessment method based on dynamic marine environmental factors

海洋气象环境复杂多变,船舶航行风险随时间演变具有较高的不确定性。本文从时空分析的角度出发,动态评估船舶的航行风险:选择风场、海流、海浪、海温等4种动态因素和海雾发生频率、海底地形等2种静态因素作为评估因子,使用层次分析法(analytic hierarchy process,AHP)计算各评估因子的权重,在此基础上,利用有序加权方法(ordered weighted averaging,OWA)优化上述权重,最后结合地理信息系统(geographic information system,GIS)技术生成航行风险评估的动态风险图。研究表明,AHP-OWA算子能够突出数值变化较大的评估因子对于风险的影响,具有较好的稳定性,动态风险评估结果能够直观展示航行风险演化过程。

Navigation risk has a higher uncertainty with the complicated evolution of maritime meteorology environment over time.In this study,we dynamically evaluate the navigation risk of ships using spatial–temporal analysis.Four dynamic marine environmental factors,namely,wind field,current,wave,and sea temperature;and two static marine environmental elements,namely,sea fog frequency and submarine topography,are selected as the evaluation criteria.The preliminary weights of each evaluation criterion are calculated using analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and the optimized weights are developed using the ordered weighted averaging(OWA)combined AHP.Dynamic risk maps of navigation assessment are generated with the support of Geographic Information System.Results show stable performances.This study reveals that the significant impact of evaluation criteria with a large numerical variation on navigation risk can be highlighted by the AHP–OWA method.Furthermore,the dynamic assessment results obtained in this study can directly show the evolution process of navigation risk.