碳中和目标下天然气发电产业发展前景优化

Optimization of the development prospect of gas power industry under the goal of carbon neutrality

天然气发电产业作为我国清洁能源发展进程中的重要一环,在“碳中和”目标下将发挥特殊的作用。为了量化“碳中和”目标下气电产业的发展前景,基于平准化电力成本(LCOE),考虑天然气供应和电力需求在多期经济环境下的最大化收益,构建气电产业收益动态非线性优化模型,通过对比分析维持现状(基准情景)和“碳中和”情景,对“碳中和”目标下气电产业的发展前景进行了多情景量化分析。结论认为:①较之于基准情景,碳中和情景下气电产业长远发展前景更好;②发电补贴是碳中和情境下气电产业的主要收入来源,政府应当给予气电企业适当补贴;③天然气市场价格对气电企业影响较大,较低的天然气价格可以维持气电企业较好的发展,政府应关注天然气市场价格,当天然气价格变高时适当增加补贴来保证气电企业的基本收入;④政府应培育多种电力调峰辅助市场服务,降低或取消天然气发电企业发电最小比例约束,这将有利于气电企业的良性发展,促进发电与调峰市场化,同时气电企业也应加大科技研发和创新力度,提高管理效率。

The gas power industry,as an important part of the clean energy process in China,plays a special role under the goal of carbon neutrality.In order to quantify the development prospect of gas power industry under the goal of carbon neutrality,this paper constructs a dynamic nonlinear profit optimization model of gas power industry by maximizing the profit of natural gas supply and electricity demand under multiple economic environments based on the levelized cost of energy(LCOE).Then,carries out scenario quantitative analysis on the development prospect of gas power industry under the goal of carbon neutrality by comparatively analyzing the status quo(reference scenario)and the carbon neutrality scenario.And the following conclusions are reached.First,the long-term development prospect of gas power enterprises is better in the carbon neutrality scenario than in the reference scenario.Second,power generation subsidies are the main income sources of gas power enterprises in the carbon neutrality scenario,so the government shall provide gas power enterprises with appropriate subsidies.Third,gas power enterprises are influenced more by the natural gas market price.Lower natural gas price is conducive to the better development of gas power enterprises.Therefore,the government shall pay attention to natural gas market price and appropriately increase the subsidies to ensure the basic income of gas power enterprises when the natural gas price rises.Fourth,the government shall reduce or cancel the constraint of minimum power generation scale to gas power enterprises,which is favorable for the healthy development of gas power enterprises and promotes the marketization of power generation and peak shaving.And meanwhile,gas power enterprises shall strengthen technological development and innovation and improve management efficiency.