优化的灰色马尔科夫模型在油气集输管道腐蚀预测中的应用

Application of Optimized Grey Markov Model to Corrosion Prediction of Oil and Gas Gathering and Transmission Pipeline

为了提高管道腐蚀速率的预测精度,在传统灰色模型的基础上构建无偏灰色模型,并进行了背景值优化、数据实时更新等多方面的改进,最后引入马尔科夫模型对预测结果进行修正。结果表明:与传统灰色模型比,优化的灰色马尔科夫模型的预测精度有较大程度的提升,提升了76.95%,并且有效改善了传统模型中长期预测不准确的缺点。

In order to improve the accuracy of prediction for pipeline corrosion rate,an unbiased Gray model was constructed on the basis of traditional gray model,and various improvements such as background value optimization and real-time data update were carried out.Finally,the Markov model was introduced to modify the prediction results.The results show the prediction accuracy of the optimized grey Markov model was greatly improved by 76.95%,compared with the traditional grey model,and the traditional model′s shortcoming of inaccuracy in medium and long term prediction was effectively improved.