增值税变动与制造业升级

VAT Change and Upgrading in Manufacturing Industry

本文从隐性增值税再减税角度,对中国各地区地方政府增值税变动对制造业升级的影响进行理论分析,并依据实际数据,建立空间面板模型进行实证研究。研究发现:在中部,由于存在隐性增值税再减税,且隐性增值税再减税幅度带来的收益大于厂商迁移导致营商环境成本的提高和产生的迁厂成本,引致东部高类别行业部分厂商迁移至中部,从而推动制造业升级,相应的实证研究证实了理论分析的结论,即中部地方政府增值税的增长率下降对制造业升级有显著的积极影响。但在东部、西部、东北和全国,地方政府增值税的增长率下降对制造业升级没有显著影响。

This paper studies the impact of local value-added tax(VAT) reduction on China’s manufacturing industry. It uses a spatial model and finds that in central China, the value of VAT reduction is greater than ever-increasing local operation cost and relocation cost, which incentivizes manufacturing firms at the high-end of the distribution to relocate in the central area. Therefore, the migration of advanced manufacturing firms upgrades the manufacturing industry. The empirical results confirm the theoretical prediction that the implicit VAT reduction elevates the manufacturing industry, but the same VAT reduction has little impact in either east, west, or northeast of China.