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跨越“中等收入陷阱”内外影响机制研究——基于中美贸易战视角和65个国家的经验分析 被引量:1

Study on the Internal and External Mechanism of Overcoming“Middle-Income Trap”:From the Perspective of Sino-US Trade War and the Analysis of 65 Countries
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摘要 本文旨在探究跨越"中等收入陷阱"的内外影响机制,以对外开放度、制度环境、城市化水平、人力资本为切入点,对2006-2016年65个国家和地区的人均收入进行门槛效应检验,发现以上变量对人均收入存在显著非线性影响。通过对分组回归结果的分析,提出跨越陷阱的政策建议:对外方面,中国应在前期对外开放的基础上,继续推动新一轮对外开放,关键是稳步推进金融领域开放以提高投资开放度;对内方面,应持续完善制度环境,并以此为抓手,稳步提高城市化水平,加强人力资本建设。 The purpose of this paper is to explore the internal and external impact mechanisms about overcoming the"middle income trap".Based on the degree of openness,institutional environment,urbanization level and human capital,this paper analyzes the threshold effect of per capita income in 65 countries from 2006 to 2016.The results show that all the above variables have significant nonlinear effect on per capita income.Based on the results of group regression,this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:In terms of foreign policy,China should continue to promote a new round of opening-up on the basis of the previous opening-up.The key is to steadily advance the opening up of the financial sector to increase investment openness.Internally,China should continue to improve the institutional environment and use this as a starting point to steadily increase the level of urbanization and strengthen human capital construction.
作者 李心稳 翟爱梅 LI Xinwen;ZHAI Aimei(China Banknote Printing and Minting,Beijing,100044;Sun Yat-sen University,Zhuhai,519082)
出处 《中国经济问题》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第2期141-154,共14页 China Economic Studies
关键词 中等收入陷阱 对外开放度 制度环境 城市化水平 门槛效应 middle income trap openness institutional environment urbanization level threshold effect
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