绿洲发展生态价值与社会经济价值的综合分析

Comprehensive analysis of ecological and socio-economic benefits of oasis development

干旱绿洲区水资源匮乏,绿洲的生态发展与社会经济发展之间矛盾突出,评估绿洲生态与经济的价值对于指导绿洲发展具有现实意义。基于2014-2018年的石羊河流域统计数据,考虑流域水资源因素、社会经济因素和绿洲景观因素的影响,结合情景假设的分析方法,分别对流域内绿洲适宜面积、耕地数量底线、绿洲生态价值和社会经济价值进行估算。结果表明:2014-2018年石羊河流域平均绿洲适宜面积为33.09×10^(4)~50.26×10^(4)hm^(2),流域平均绿洲生态价值为170.77×10^(8)元,二者均呈现减少趋势;绿洲生态价值的最小值为假设畜牧业增加情景中的149.44×10^(8)元,绿洲生态价值和社会经济价值之和最大值为假设增加人口、增加耕地面积、增加畜牧业和增加工业组合下的945.85×10^(8)元。

The water scarcity in arid inland oases results in prominent conflicts between ecological development and socio-economic development.Based on the data from 2014 to 2018,the scenario hypothesis analysis is used to estimate the suitable area of oasis,baseline of cultivated land,ecological and socio-economic value of oasis in Shiyanghe River Basin under the impact of water resources,social economy and oasis landscape in this area.Our results indicate that the average suitable area of oasis ranged from 330.9×10^(3)hm^(2)to 502.6×10^(3)hm^(2) and the average ecological value of oasis was approximately 17.08×10^(9) CNY in the Shiyanghe River Basin during 2014-2018,and both of them showed a decreasing trend.The minimum ecological value of oasis was estimated as 14.944×10^(9) CNY,which was calculated based on the hypothetical increase of animal husbandry.Furthermore,the maximum ecological and socio-economic value of oasis was estimated to be 94.585×10^(9) CNY,which was calculated based on the combined hypothetical increase of population,cultivated land area,animal husbandry and industry.