基于统计方法的自然风风向预测模型

Prediction Model of Natural Wind Direction Based on Statistical Method

自然界中的风力机受变化风向的影响,探究偏航工况下风向的变化规律对风力机的影响意义重大。本文依据激光雷达测风系统实测自然风数据,对风向变化规律进行分析;依据马尔可夫链模型等理论对自然风况条件下的风向进行数学建模,构建了呼和浩特某地自然风风向变化的状态转移概率矩阵模型;基于该模型生成随机时间序列对其进行验证,从而预测当地短时间内的风向变化。该方法考虑了自然风风向的随机特性及时序特性,并通过与实测风向序列数据进行对比,为风向变化的相关研究提供参考。

Wind turbine in nature is affected by the change of wind direction.It is of great significance to explore the change of wind direction under yaw condition.In this paper,based on the natural wind data measured by lidar wind measurement system,the variation law of wind direction is analyzed.According to the theory of Markov chain model,the mathematical model of natural wind direction is established,and the state transition probability matrix model of natural wind direction change in Hohhot is established.Based on this model,a random time series is generated to verify the wind direction model,so as to predict the local wind direction change in a short time.This method takes into account the random and time sequence characteristics of natural wind direction,and compares with the measured wind direction series data,which provides a reference for the related research of wind direction change.