基于SD演化博弈模型的数字货币扩散演化仿真研究

Cryptocurrency diffusion evolution simulation based on SD evolution game model

以区块链技术为基础的数字货币已成为数字时代发展的必然产物;数字货币的去中心化和匿名性等特性而引发的风险问题已经引起了社会和学界的广泛关注;如何在发挥数字货币优势的同时抑制数字货币不法活动以控制风险已经成为数字经济发展的重要问题.本文通过构建民众"参与"和政府"监管"数字货币的博弈模型、开展博弈演化路径分析;通过构建SD演化博弈流率基本入树模型,开展数字货币演化扩散情景模拟分析,探索博弈主体策略的动态演化过程及其反馈机制,厘清政府监管行为与民众参与行为关系,以寻找数字货币的有效监管策略.结果显示:数字货币具有较强的扩散能力,政府对数字货币的适度监管一定程度上抑制了数字货币相关不法活动;但政府采取强硬"监管"措施不能从根本上杜绝民众参与私人数字货币挖掘、交易或持有行为及其相关不法活动;政府策略是否收敛于"监管"取决于政府监管所带来的综合社会效用,对私人数字货币的严格监管可能影响私人数字货币参与合法的全球性商品贸易,最终降低"监管"的综合社会效用.经过深入探讨,研究认为寻找私人数字货币的替代货币媒介,推动私人数字货币交易向法定数字货币交易过渡,推进法定数字货币成为数字货币主流是发挥数字货币应用优势同时控制数字货币风险的有效策略.

Blockchain-based cryptocurrency has become an inevitable product of the digital age.The risk problems caused by the decentralization and anonymity of cryptocurrency have attracted wide attention the society and academia.How to restrain the illegal activities of cryptocurrency while exerting the advantage of cryptocurrency to control the risk has become an important issue in the development of digital economy.This paper constructs a game model between the public’s"participation"and the government’s"regulation",and analyzes evolution path of the game.By constructing the SD evolutionary game flow rate basic in-tree model,this paper carries out cryptocurrency diffusion evolution simulation analysis,explores the"cumulative"dynamic replication process of the public’s"participation"in cryptocurrency and the government’s"regulation"of cryptocurrency,in an effort to figure out the inherent motive mechanism as well as efficient regulation of cryptocurrency diffusion.The result shows that cryptocurrency has a comparatively strong capability of diffusion,and the government’s moderate regulation of cryptocurrency has restrained illegal criminal activities such as money laundering,drug trading and speculation in the meantime.However,the strict"regulation"measures taken by the government can not fundamentally eliminate activities of cryptocurrency trading,mining and holding;and therefore,the only way to supervise or even prohibit cryptocurrency is to find substitute currency medium for private cryptocurrency.Whether the government’s strategy converges to"regulation"depends on the comprehensive social utility brought by its regulation,it may affect legal trades such as proper global trades using cryptocurrency,and the rapid diffusion as well as development of blockchain technology could serve to compromise the comprehensive social utility of"regulation".After in-depth discussion,it is considered that finding alternative monetary media for private cryptocurrency and promoting the transition from cryptocurrency transaction to legal digital currency transaction,forming legal digital currency as the mainstream,the digital currency system in which legal and private digital currencies compete and promote each other,is an effective strategy to exert the advantage of cryptocurrency application and control the risk of cryptocurrency at the same time.