一种水资源短缺风险评价耦合模型及其应用

A coupled model for evaluating water shortage risk and its application

为了避免传统聚类方法和因子筛选方法的不足,本文提出一种水资源短缺风险评价耦合模型.首先引入《Science》上发表的聚类算法对水资源短缺风险进行聚类,确定建模样本的风险等级;其次引入一种标准化信息流方法检测风险因子与风险之间的因果关系,筛选水资源短缺风险敏感因子;最后采用Fisher判别分析法构建水资源短缺风险等级评价模型.针对京津唐地区水资源短缺风险评价的实例研究,表明了模型的适用性.对天津市各区县2020年的水资源短缺风险等级进行评价,研究结果表明:不考虑外调水和非传统水资源时,各区县水资源短缺风险均为高风险;考虑外调水和非传统水资源时,大部分区县水资源短缺风险等级较低,但市内六区、滨海新区、津南区、武清区和蓟县仍然处于高风险状态.加大非传统水源利用力度是降低天津市水资源短缺风险的主要途径.

In this paper,a coupled model for predicting water shortage risk level was proposed to avoid the shortcomings of traditional clustering methods and factor selection methods.First,the RLCA algorithm,published in the journal of Science,was introduced to classify the water shortage risk,in order to determine the risk levels of the modeling samples.Second,a method of normalized information flow was introduced to detect causal relation between risk and its factors and the sensitive factors of water shortage risk were selected.Finally,a model for predicting water shortage risk level was built by using Fisher discriminant analysis.To test our new model,water shortage risk of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Region was evaluated.Water shortage risk levels of the districts and counties of Tianjin in 2020 were predicted.The results show that the risks of all the districts and counties of Tianjin are in the state of high risk without consideration of transferred and non-traditional water resourses.After using transferred and non-traditional water resourses,the risks of most the districts and counties are reduced to a lower level.However,six districts in the city,Binhai New District,Jinnan District,Wuqing District and Jixian County are still in a high-risk state.Increasing the utilization of non-traditional water resources is the main way to reduce the high risk in the districts and counties of Tianjin.