基于MaxEnt模型的中华枸杞潜在分布预测及其重要影响因子分析

Prediction of potential distribution of Lycium chinense based on MaxEnt model and analysis of its important influencing factors

【目的】中华枸杞在我国大多地区处于野生状态,应用方式较为局限。在全球气候变化背景下,预测中华枸杞当前及未来适宜分布区对其种质资源保护、合理引种栽培以及大面积推广具有重要意义。【方法】本研究基于ArcGIS与MaxEnt模型,利用124条中华枸杞分布数据和8个气候变量,评估了制约其地理分布的主要气候因子,并探讨了其在当前和未来的潜在分布区。【结果】当前中华枸杞的总适生区面积约占国土面积的36.73%,水平分布区间约为18°~45°N、90°~123°E。其中核心适宜区主要位于秦岭、太行山以及华东地区的浙江、江苏、安徽;西南地区的云南、贵州、重庆、四川;西北地区的甘肃、宁夏及其各自的邻近区域。影响其分布的主要气候因子为最冷月最低温度、最湿月降水量、最干月降水量、最暖月最高温度。随着未来气候变暖,中华枸杞总适生区面积与当前相比相差不大,但其主要核心适宜区有向"高海拔地区扩张"、"沿海地区迁移"及"中部聚集"的趋势,具体表现为:在陕西、甘肃等秦岭地区向高海拔地区扩张,东部沿海地区逐渐形成狭条带状核心适宜区,中部湖南、湖北等地区逐渐形成大面积片状核心适宜区。【结论】中华枸杞的适生区主要呈现广域和连续特点,而核心适宜区呈狭域、间断分布。影响其地理分布的气候因子主要为温度和降雨,其中最冷月最低温度是限制其分布的最主要气候因子。未来,我国东部沿海地区,大别山地区,中部秦岭、大巴山等地区,西南地区的四川、重庆等地及其邻近区域适合进行枸杞的引种、栽培及推广。

[Objective]In most areas of China,Lycium chinense is in a wild state and its application is limited.In the context of global climate change,the prediction of current and future suitable distribution areas of L.chinense is of great significance for the protection of its germplasm resources,rational introduction and cultivation,and large-scale promotion.[Method]Based on ArcGIS and MaxEnt models,we used 124 distribution data of L.chinense and 8 climatic variables to evaluate the main climatic factors restricting its geographical distribution and discuss its current and future potential distribution areas.[Result]At present,the total suitable area of L.chinense occupied about 36.73%of the national land area,and the horizontal distribution interval was about 18°-45°N and 90°-123°E.Core suitable areas were mainly located in the Qinling Mountains,Taihang Mountains of northern China;and Zhejiang,Jiangsu and Anhui in eastern China;Yunnan,Guizhou,Chongqing and Sichuan in the southwestern China;Gansu,Ningxia in the northwestern China and their neighboring areas.The main climatic factors affecting its distribution were the Min.temperature of the coldest month,the precipitation of the wettest month,the precipitation of the driest month,and the Max.temperature of the warmest month.With the future climate warming,the total suitable area of L.chinense was not much different from the current one,but its main core suitable area tended to"expansion at high altitudes","migration in coastal areas"and"central gathering".The specific manifestation was the expansion to high-altitude areas in Shaanxi,Gansu and other Qinling areas of northwestern China;the eastern coastal areas gradually formed a narrow strip core suitable area;the central Hunan and Hubei areas gradually formed a large area of flaky core suitable area.[Conclusion]The suitable areas of L.chinense is mainly wide and continuous,while core suitable area is narrow and discontinuous.The climatic factors affecting its geographical distribution are mainly temperature and rainfall,and the Min.temperature of the coldest month is the most important climatic factor limiting its distribution.In the future,the eastern coastal areas of China,Dabie Mountains,Qinling Mountains and Daba Mountains in central China,southwestern regions such as Sichuan,Chongqing and their adjacent areas are suitable for the introduction,cultivation and promotion of L.chinense.