地缘政治竞争、战略偏好演变与缅甸对华政策

Geopolitical Competition,Evolution of Strategic Preferences and Myanmar’s Policy toward China

本文通过梳理冷战后缅甸面临的地缘政治环境和领导人战略偏好来分析缅甸对华政策。丹瑞执政时期中美在东南亚的地缘政治竞争较弱,缅甸卷入大国竞争的风险较小,但缅甸将安全威胁置于首要地位,强调反抗外部干涉、维护政权独立,形成进攻型战略偏好,缅甸因而采取对华合作战略,试图借此平衡美国威胁。登盛执政时期,中美在东南亚的地缘政治竞争加剧,缅甸卷入大国竞争的风险和利用大国竞争获益的机会增大,但缅甸将经济利益置于突出地位,安全威胁感知急剧下降,形成调和型战略偏好,因此缅甸既通过对华合作获取利益,又通过改善缅美关系降低对华依赖。民盟执政时期,缅甸面临的美国压力增大、对华合作机会增多,延续调和型战略偏好的缅甸领导人通过强化对华合作削弱美国威胁,同时开展多元化外交平衡中国影响力。军方再度执政后,缅甸面临的美国压力急剧上升,持调和型战略偏好的缅甸领导人将更加靠近中国以抵御美国压力。

During the Than Shwe administration,as the geopolitical competition between China and the US was rather weak in Southeast Asia,Myanmar gave top priority to preventing security threats,and stressed opposition to external interference,thus adopting a strategy of cooperation with China in order to counterbalance American threats.During the Thein Sein administration,as China and the US stepped up their geopolitical competition in Southeast Asia,both the risk for Myanmar to get involved in major power competition and the opportunity for it to gain benefit from major power competition grew.As a result,Myanmar gave priority to economic interests,hence forming a conciliatory strategic preference.Based on such a strategic preference,Myanmar not only obtained benefits through cooperation with China,but also reduced its dependence on China through improving its relations with the United States.During the NLD administration,due to the increasing pressure from the United States and the growing opportunities for cooperation with China,the Myanmar leaders began to strengthen cooperation with China to offset American threats,while conducting diversified diplomacy to balance China’s influence.After the military took power again,the US pressure on Myanmar is rising sharply.As a result,the Myanmar leaders with reconciliatory strategic preference will move closer to China to resist US pressure.