影子银行对房价溢出效应的区域异质性研究——基于省级面板数据的空间计量分析

Analysis of Regional Heterogeneity of Shadow Banking on House Price Spillover Effect Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于2009—2018年我国31个省级区域的面板数据,运用空间面板模型研究影子银行与房价之间的变动关系。结果表明:我国房价存在地理聚集效应,且与影子银行有着一定的空间关联性。从全国层面来看,影子银行具有显著的正向溢出效应,即某个地域影子银行规模的扩大不仅会促进当地房价的上涨,还会对邻近地域的房价起到推动作用。分地区来看:东、中部地区影子银行规模的扩大对房价有着较强的正向溢出效应,而西部地区的溢出效应不明显。为此,建议地方政府需稳定房价、规范影子银行发展以及促进区域协调发展等。

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and regions in China from 2009 to 2018,with a spatial econometric model,the paper analyzes the relationship between shadow banking and housing prices.The results show that housing prices have a geographical agglomeration effectand a certain spatial correlation.From the national level,shadow banking has a significant positive spillover effect,that is,the expansion of shadow banking scale in a certain region will not only promote the rise of local housing prices,but also promote the housing prices in neighboring regions.In terms of regions,the expansion of shadow banking has a strong positive spillover effect on housing prices in the eastern and central regions in China,but the spillover effect is not obvious in the western regions.To this end,we suggest that local governments should stabilize housing prices,regulate the development of shadow banking,and promote coordinated development among regions.