小域估计及基准校正在贫困测度中的应用

Application of Small Domain Estimation and Datum Correction in Poverty Measure

获得可靠及时的区(县)级扶贫数据对地方政府有效规划扶贫资金、实施扶贫工作至关重要。文章省份部分区(县)的贫困率进行推断,结果表明,小域估计技术能够测度地区贫困率。同时,通过比率基准和差方政府测度地区贫困提供了新的途径和方法。

Obtaining reliable and timely data of poverty alleviation at prefecture(county) level is very important for local governments to effectively plan poverty alleviation funds and implement poverty alleviation work. This paper applies Fay-Herriot model and Logistic model to infer the poverty rate of some prefectures(counties) in a certain province by selecting auxiliary information from four aspects: income, gender, age and education level. The results show that the small domain estimation technique can be used to measure the regional poverty rate. At the same time, the EBLUP estimate of the poverty rate in prefecture-level cities is adjusted through the datum correction methods such as ratio datum and difference datum, which ensures the consistency of the results of superior statistical departments and subordinate statistical departments, and provides new ways and methods for the local government to measure the regional poverty in the future.