能源回弹效应理论机制与测算

Theoretical Mechanism and Measurement of Energy Rebound Effect

文章首先构建了能源回弹效应的内生化理论模型,然后推导出短期与长期回弹效应,最后采用CES生产函数法对2000—2018年中国短期与长期能源回弹效应及其分解进行测算。研究表明:研究期内短期能源回弹效应平均值为37.48%,表现为部分回弹效应,且区域短期能源回弹效应主要受能源强度效应波动的影响;长期能源回弹效应平均值处于0~1,也属于部分回弹效应,但由于长期回弹效应考虑了资本变动的影响,因此回弹效应值更大且变动趋势更为明显。

This paper firstly constructs the endogenous theoretical model of energy rebound effect, and then deduces the short-term and long-term rebound effect. Finally,the paper uses the CES production function method to measure the short-term and long-term energy rebound effect and its decomposition in China from 2000 to 2018. The study results go as follows: The average value of short-term energy rebound effect in the study period is 37.48%, showing partial rebound effect, and the regional short-term energy rebound effect is mainly affected by the fluctuation of energy intensity effect. The average value of long-term energy rebound effect is between 0 and 1, which is also a partial rebound effect. However, since the long-term rebound effect takes into account the impact of capital changes, the rebound effect value is larger and the variation trend is more obvious.