中国三大产业的总产出弹性估计

Estimation on Aggregate Output Elasticity of China’s Three Major Industries

文章从GDP的三大产业构成出发,推导了三大产业的总产出弹性表达式,并运用中国1995—2020年的相关数据进行了计量分析。研究发现:从全国层面来看,我国三大产业的总产出弹性值呈现"二、三、一"类型。从分省份层面来看,北京、天津、山西、内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、江苏、福建、山东、河南、广东、广西、四川、贵州、陕西、青海、新疆的三大产业的总产出弹性值也呈现"二、三、一"类型;宁夏的三大产业的总产出弹性值呈现"二、一、三"类型;河北、黑龙江、上海、浙江、重庆、云南、甘肃的三大产业的总产出弹性值呈现"三、二、一"类型;安徽、湖北、湖南的三大产业的总产出弹性值呈现"三、一、二"类型;江西、西藏的三大产业的总产出弹性值呈现"一、二、三"类型;海南的三大产业的总产出弹性值呈现"一、三、二"类型。从分行业层面来看,工业的总产出弹性值最大,农林牧渔业的总产出弹性值比工业的总产出弹性值略小。

Starting from the composition of the three industries of GDP, this paper deduces the expression of aggregate output elasticity of the three industries, and makes an econometric analysis by using the relevant data of China from 1995 to 2020. The results show that the aggregate output elasticity of China’s three major industries presents the types of"second, third and first"at national level. At the provincial level, the aggregate output elasticity value of the three industries in Beijing, Tianjin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Jilin, Jiangsu, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, Guizhou, Shaanxi, Qinghai and Xinjiang also presents the type of"second, third and first". The aggregate output elasticity value of the three industries in Ningxia presents the type of"second, first and third". The aggregate output elasticity value of the three industries in Hebei, Heilongjiang,Shanghai, Zhejiang, Chongqing, Yunnan and Gansu presents the"third-second-first"type. The aggregate output elasticity value of the three major industries in Anhui, Hubei and Hunan shows the type of"third, first and second". The aggregate output elasticity value of the three major industries in Jiangxi and Xizang presents the type of"first, second and third". The aggregate output elasticity value of the three industries in Hainan presents the type of"first, third and second". From the perspective of sub-industry level, the industry has the largest aggregate output elasticity value, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have a slightly smalleraggregate output elasticity value than the industry.