安徽省乡村人口-土地-产业耦合协调性发展研究

Research on Coupling Coordinated Development of Rural Population-Land-Industry in Anhui Province

在全球可持续发展的背景下,乡村高质量发展已逐渐成为政府和学术界关注的焦点。文章基于耦合协调模型,从人口-土地-产业角度建立耦合协调度评价指标,对安徽省60个县域进行测算以捕获其时空变化特征。结果表明:在2000-2015年期间,安徽省乡村“人地产”耦合协调度的时空格局差异显著,乡村“人地产”系统以勉强协调类和初步协调发展类为主;空间上呈现出“由西北向东南递增”的格局特征,协调发展度高的区域分布在平原地区,丘陵、山地等自然条件较差的区域协调度低;时间维度上呈现出由低水平耦合向协调发展的波段式演进特征。为推动乡村可持续发展,建议从完善乡村基础设施和加快农业现代化进程等方面促进乡村内部要素协同发展。

In the context of global sustainable development,rural high-quality development has gradually become the focus of the government and academia.Based on the coupling coordination model,the coupling coordination degree evaluation index was set up from the aspect of population-land-industry,and 60 counties in Anhui Province were measured to obtain the spatio-temporal change characteristics.The results show that in the period from 2000 to 2015,there are significant differences in the spatial and temporal patterns of rural population-land-industry coupling coordination in Anhui Province.The rural population-land-industry system is mainly based on the barely coordination and preliminary coordination.In space,the coordination degree increases in the NW-SE direction.The region with high degree of coordination is distributed in the plain area,and the region with poor natural conditions,such as hills and mountains,has low degree of coordination.From a time series perspective,there is a band type evolution from low-level coupling to coordinated development.In order to promote the sustainable development of rural areas,it is suggested to promote the coordinated development of rural internal factors by improving rural infrastructure and accelerating the process of agricultural modernization.