“一带一路”沿线国家农作物虚拟水贸易时空格局及驱动因素分析

Analysis of Spatiotemporal Pattern and Drivers of Virtual Crops Water Trade Along the Belt and Road

"一带一路"沿线地区水资源短缺且空间分布不均衡,虚拟水贸易实现了对水资源的远距离空间调配。以2010—2018年"一带一路"沿线59个国家和37种农作物为研究对象核算各国农作物虚拟水贸易,利用标准差椭圆、Moran’s I指数、LISA指数刻画农作物虚拟水贸易的时空格局特征,通过地理探测器和地理加权回归模型分析农作物虚拟水贸易的驱动因素及其空间异质性。研究发现:(1)沿线各国"低耗水—高出口型"作物占比4.013%,"高耗水—高出口型"作物占比1.926%。(2)沿线各国农作物虚拟水贸易的进口格局呈收缩趋势,出口格局呈扩张趋势,且其局部存在一定的集聚特征,进口的"高—高集聚"区域主要处于南亚地区,出口的"高—高集聚"区域主要分布在中东欧地区。(3)各显著驱动因素能较好地解释沿线各国农作物虚拟水净出口量,各因素中国内生产总值呈负相关驱动特征,耕地面积呈正相关驱动特征,而人口规模、森林面积和邻国接边数在各单元间呈正负两极的差异驱动特征。

Water resources are scarce and unevenly distributed along the Belt and Road,whereas virtual water trade could achieve the spatial allocation of water resources over long distances.The virtual crop water trade was calculated,including 37 crops from 59 countries along the Belt and Road between 2010-2018.Based on the results,the spatiotemporal patterns of virtual crop water trade were studied with the method of the standard deviation ellipse,Moran’s I index,and LISA index,and the spatial variation of driving forces were analyzed by the geographical detector and geographically weighted regression.The proportion of"low water-consuming and high export"of crops was 4.013%,and the"high water-consuming and high export"was 1.926% among these 8 countries.Its import spatiotemporal pattern had a trend of contraction,conversely,the export showed an expansive trend.Some aggregation characteristics arose in the local area,with the high-high concentrated regions for import were mainly distributed among South Asia,and the high-high concentrated areas for export were almost in Central and Eastern Europe.The significant drivers could explain the forcing of net crop virtual water exports well along the Belt and Road,with negative driving characteristics for GDP and positive driving characteristics for arable land area,while population scale,forest area,and the number of bordering neighbors showed positive and negative bipolar driving characteristics among different countries.