越南官方与民间对华博弈南海问题的“双簧”之道

Cooperation for South China Sea Issue against China between Civil Movements and Government in Vietnam:Roots and Propect

越南民众在南海问题上针对中国的街头集会与示威等抗议行动,由零星的活动,逐渐演变成常态化的活动,表现形式是定期活动与突发活动相互交织在一起。定期活动往往出现在越南视角下具有重大纪念意义的时间点即每年的1月19日和3月14日,突发活动则会在一些重大事件的刺激下发生,如2014年的5月事件。越南民众针对南海问题的街头抗议,客观上因应并强化了越南官方在南海问题上的对华博弈,事实上形成了越南对华博弈南海问题的"双簧"态势。越南官方在此类活动中的放任(纵容)以及"收放自如"的管控,均显示出民间的此类行动事实上也符合越南官方对华博弈南海问题之需要。越南民间在南海问题上针对中国的行动,其实也是越南官方长期培育的结果。民间在街头集会和示威行动中的口号和主张——包括中国"侵略"越南和越南对于南海岛礁的"主权"主张,均来自于越南官方长期不懈的宣传以及对民间对华"负面认知"的培育,而且这种"培育"已经形成了有利于越南民间以街头集会示威为主的对华博弈南海问题的社会氛围。事实上,这种氛围的形成,也有利于越南形成对华博弈南海问题的"合力"之势和"双簧"效果。

The article aims to study the approaches for cooperation for South China Sea issue between civil movements and its government in Vietnam.After the peaceful protest against China for South China Sea(SCS)issue in December 2007,the popularity of civil protest against China concerning SCS issue has increased.Publicly,there has no official support for those movements from Vietnam government,though the aim of these movements actually support Vietnam government’s SCS policy towards China.Actually,those civil movements,majority of them without clear order from government of Vietnam,are result from Vietnam governments’efforts in last couple of decades.Nationalism in Vietnam’s propoganda to Vietnamese in last 5 decades,in which there are full of anti-China,should be responsible for Vietnamese’s civil movements against China for SCS.Due to the reality for roots to civil moments against China for SCS issue,including Vietnamese’s perception which has been totally negative for many years,it could be concluded that there will be more and more civil movements against China for SCS issue,with un-public support from government.