基于多变量灰色模型的光伏短期预测

Short term photovoltaic prediction based on multivariable grey model

由于具有随机性与间歇性,属于清洁能源的光伏发电也给电网的稳定运行带来不利影响,因此需要对光伏出力进行准确预测,以便进行合理调度,保障电网安全性与经济收益。通过光伏出力的特性公式与实际物理环境挖掘影响光伏出力的影响因素,针对阴天情况将影响因素进行组合并纳入多变量灰色模型并进行预测建模,对光伏阵列在短期内的出力值进行预测。最后进行模型准确度的评估与误差定量分析,得出该方法可行性较高的结论。

Due to its randomness and intermittency,photovoltaic power generation,which belongs to clean energy,also brings adverse effects to the stable operation of the power grid.Therefore,it is necessary to accurately predict the photovoltaic output,so as to carry out reasonable dispatching and ensure the security and economic benefits of the power grid.Through the characteristic formula of photovoltaic output and the actual physical environment,the influencing factors of photovoltaic output are explored.According to different weather types,the influencing factors are combined and incorporated into the multivariable grey model to predict the output value of photovoltaic array in the short term.Finally,the model accuracy evaluation and error quantitative analysis are carried out,and the conclusion that the method feasibility is higher is got.