贵州省耕地保有面积的预测及思考

Forecast and Thinking of the Area of Cultivated Land in Guizhou Province

贵州省生态脆弱,坡、耕地面积大,加上城镇化的快速发展,人地矛盾突出。为此,从考虑粮食安全的立场出发,运用粮食需求法,对贵州省2035年耕地保有面积进行初步推测,为新时代下编制国土空间规划、落实耕地保护制度,保障粮食安全等提供决策参考。结果表明:生存型、温饱型、小康型、富裕型4种类型的耕地保有面积分别为145万hm^(2)、194万hm^(2)、272万hm^(2)和350万hm^(2)。经济社会建设发展和耕地保护冲突较大,进行相关规划建设时需充分考虑耕地保护和开发利用的矛盾。

Guizhou Province is ecologically fragile,a large area of sloping farmland,rapid urbanization,and the contradiction between human and land.From the standpoint of considering food security,this study used the method of food demand to speculate the cultivated land area in 2035 in Guizhou Province,which provides decision-making reference for the establishment of land space planning,the implementation of cultivated land protection system and the protection of food security in the new era.The results showed that the four types of cultivated land area for survival,subsistence,well-off and affluent were 1.45 million ha,1.94 million ha,2.72 million ha and 3.50 million ha,respectively.Economic and social construction and cultivated land protection was relatively conflict.The contradiction between cultivated land and constructionshould be fully considered when planning construction and development.