人民币短长期走势预测研究--基于ARIMA模型的实证分析

Research on Forecast of CNY's Short and Long Term Trend--Empirical analysis based on ARIMA model

从短期和长期两方面对人民币未来走势进行预测。运用ARIMA模型对美元兑人民币央行中间价进行五周的短期预测,结论为2021年01月15日至2021年02月12日的每周的美元兑人民币央行中间价将小幅度升值。而长期则通过K线图和宏观经济政策进行分析,其分析结果为虽因外汇风险准备金率从20%下调为0,汇率小范围波动,但人民币总体趋势为升值。最后,从宏观央行政策方面与微观投资方面提出建议。

This article predicts the future trend of the CNY from both short-term and long-term perspectives.Using the ARIMA model to make a five—week short-term forecast of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the CNY,the conclusion is that from January 15,2021 to February 12,2021,the weekly central parity rate of the US dollar against the CNY will appreciate slightly.In the long term,it has been analyzed through K-line charts and macroeconomic policies.The result of the analysis is that although the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio has been lowered from 20%to 0 and the exchange rate has fluctuated in a small range,the overall trend of the CNY is appreciation.Finally,suggestions are made from the macro central bank policy and micro investment.