中国东部沿海地区城市经济韧性的空间差异及其产业结构解释

Spatial pattern of urban economic resilience in eastern coastal China and industrial explanation

经济韧性的强弱决定着城市在面对冲击时可以快速度过危机还是陷入长期经济发展停滞。本文将城市经济韧性区分为长期经济韧性和短期经济韧性,分析中国东部沿海地级及以上城市的经济韧性和产业结构的时空分异特征,探讨产业结构在不同时期对城市经济韧性的影响。研究发现,东部沿海地区城市不同时期的短期经济韧性及长期经济韧性存在明显的空间差异;长期经济韧性和短期经济韧性的影响因素不同,表征产业整体技术含量的经济复杂度和表征产业关联程度的相关多样化指数能显著提升城市长期经济韧性,短期经济韧性的影响因素则因时期不同而存在差别。延长产业价值链、构建地方产业集群、提升产业层次水平,有助于城市提高经济韧性。

Since the global financial crisis in 2008,regional economic resilience has been attracting increasing attention across the world.When facing economic shocks,some regions suffer less and could manage to get through crisis in a short period,while some might be mired in economic stagnation,which mainly depends on the economic resilience of the country.Existing research usually classifies economic resilience into resistance and recovery resilience based on the analysis of a specific economic shock.It is simple and operable in empirical works though,which aims to unravel the economic resilience in a relatively short period and neglects the impacts of longstanding"slow burn"in the urban economy.Thus,this paper divided urban economic resilience into long-term and short-term economic resilience,and further analyzed the features of spatiotemporal distributions of industrial structures(including economic complexity and industrial variety)and urban economic resilience,and explored the impacts of industrial structures on urban economic resilience in different economic development stages with eastern coastal China as a study case.The conclusions are as follows.(1)The economic complexity in the study area is higher in the south and lower in the north,and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are the most prominent areas.The distribution of industrial variety is more balanced,while the related variety of center cities is generally higher than that of surrounding cities.Distribution patterns of short-term economic resilience in different periods show great differences,and the long-term economic resilience of the Yangtze River Delta is higher than that in other areas.(2)The elevation of economic complexity and related industrial variety could improve urban long-term economic resilience significantly,while the unrelated variety has no evident impacts,which verifies the importance of knowledge spillover and technology links in the promotion of urban long-term economic resilience.(3)Factors influencing short-term economic resilience vary in different periods.Cities with enormous financial industries were vulnerable to economic shocks in 2008.Comparatively,cities predominated by heavy industries had the lowest economic resilience in the structural adjustment period after 2011.(4)Factors influencing the resistance and recovery resilience on the same shock are different.A higher level of related variety could help cities resist the crisis in 2008,but have no distinct impacts on their recovery,while an elevated level of unrelated variety might harm the recovery from the crisis of 2008.Thus,extending the industrial value chain,establishing local industrial clusters,and upgrading the industrial level are possible ways to raise urban economic resilience.