中国城市民生发展水平时空演化特征及其影响因素

Spatio-temporal Pattern Evolution and Impact Factors of People's Livelihood Developing Undertakings Level in China

以中国大陆277个地级及以上城市为研究对象,运用泰尔系数、空间自相关、GWR方法分析2002—2017年中国城市民生发展水平时空演化特征及其影响因素。结果表明:中国城市民生发展水平稳步提升,民生发展形势渐佳,从四大区域来看,东部最高,东北次之,中部再次之,西部最低;中国城市民生发展水平空间异质性明显,空间集聚效应显著。主要形成长三角、珠三角、京津冀三大高水平热点区,冷点区主要集中在西北地区、黄土高原、云贵高原和东北平原,其中东北和川渝地区变化最明显,东北地区由次热点区转变为冷点区,川渝地区由冷点区转为次热点区;以回归系数平均值为参照,中国城市民生发展水平影响因素由大到小依次为财政支出、人均社会消费品零售总额、固定资产投资、国内生产总值。

This paper takes 277 prefecture-level and above cities in China's Mainland as the research object,using Theil coefficient,spatial autocorrelation,and GWR methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the level of people’s livelihood development in Chinese cities from 2002 to 2017.The results show that the level of people’s livelihood development in China’s cities is steadily improving,and the form of people’s livelihood development is getting better.From the perspective of the four major regions,the east is the highest,the northeast is the second,the middle is again,and the west is the lowest.There are obvious spatial differences in the level of people’s livelihood development in Chinese cities,and the spatial clustering effect is significant.There are three high-level hot spots in Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei.The cold spots are mainly concentrated in Northwest China,Loess Plateau,Yunnan Guizhou Plateau and Northeast Plain.The changes in Northeast China and Sichuan Chongqing are the most obvious.Northeast China has changed from the sub hot spot area to the cold spot area,and Sichuan Chongqing has changed from the cold spot area to the sub hot spot area.Taking the average value of the regression coefficient as a reference,the influencing factors of the level of people’s livelihood development in China’s cities are fiscal expenditure,total retail sales of consumer goods per capita,investment in fixed assets,and GDP in descending order.