中国集成电路制造供应链脆弱性研究

Research on Vulnerability of Chinese IC Supply Chain

集成电路产业是衡量国家科技实力与经济水平的重要标志之一。本文通过分析我国集成电路供应链所处的内外环境,针对其脆弱性,研究相关重要影响因子,提出一种系统评价新思路,对我国集成电路供应链脆弱性进行量化分析。以暴露性、敏感性、恢复性作为集成电路供应链脆弱性的三个主要测度,建立指标评价体系,通过改进的灰色关联法,将关联度作为指标权重,分别计算三个测度对集成电路供应链脆弱性的影响程度,并找出重要影响指标。分析发现我国集成电路供应链脆弱性整体偏高,特别是在关键设备、电子设计自动化(Electronics Design Automation, EDA)软件和专业人才方面劣势突出。为打破这种国际垄断,本文提出在宏观层面可适当重启国家重大专项,加大在集成电路行业的资源投入,建成良好的集成电路供应链生态模式,形成集群式规模发展;在技术领域要健全人才培养体系,着力突破关键软硬件技术,实现集成电路产品自主化。

The IC industry is one of the important indicators to measure a country’s scientific and technological strength and economic level.This paper analyzes the internal and external environment of China’s IC supply chain,studies related important influencing factors for its vulnerability,and proposes a new method of systematic evaluation to quantitatively analyze the vulnerability of China’s IC supply chain.This paper regards exposure,sensitivity,and restorability as the three main measures of the vulnerability of the IC supply chain,establishes an indicator evaluation system,and uses the correlation degree as the indicator weight through the improved gray correlation method.In this way,this paper separately calculates the influences of the three measures for the vulnerability of the IC supply chain,and finds out the significant impact indicators.The analysis shows that the overall vulnerability of China’s IC supply chain is relatively high,especially in areas such as key equipment,EDA software and professional talents.In order to break this international monopoly model,this article proposes that at the macro level,it is possible to restart major national projects,increase resource input in the IC industry,build a good IC supply chain ecological model,and form cluster development;in the technical field,it is necessary to improve talent training system,focus on breaking through key software and hardware technologies,and achieve IC products independence.