江西双季直播稻倒春寒与寒露风灾害特征分析

Analysis of Disaster Characteristics Caused by Late Spring Cold and Cold Dew Wind in Double-season Direct-seeding Rice in Jiangxi Province

基于江西省87个气象站1961~2018年的气温数据,采用气候分析方法,分析了江西省直播早稻倒春寒和直播晚稻寒露风灾害的发生频率、范围、强度特征及变化趋势。结果表明:在58年间江西直播早稻倒春寒灾害的平均发生频率为38%,北部高于南部,西部高于东部,且近30年全省倒春寒的平均发生频率较前28年下降了24个百分点;倒春寒灾害强度呈下降趋势,1996年以来未出现持续10 d以上的严重倒春寒灾害;直播晚稻寒露风灾害的发生程度以轻度和中度为主,发生频率一般为30%~50%;各地重度寒露风的发生频率一般低于10%;寒露风的发生范围在年际间差异较大,有24%的年份在局部地区发生了重度寒露风,有14%的年份在部分地区发生了重度寒露风;寒露风灾害强度呈下降趋势,在2014年以后寒露风强度指数持续低于平均值。

Based on the meteorological data of 87 stations in Jiangxi Province from 1961 to 2018,the frequency,scope,intensity characteristics and change trend of late spring cold and cold dew wind disasters were analyzed by climate analysis method.The results showed that the average occurring frequency of late spring cold disaster was 38%in the past 58 years.The average occurring frequency was higher in the north than in the south,and higher in the west than in the east.Compared with the previous 28 years,the frequency of the late spring cold in the past 30 years has decreased by 24%on average in the whole province.The intensity of late spring cold disaster was decreased,and the serious cold disaster lasting more than 10 days did not happen since 1996.The degree of cold dew wind disaster of direct-seeding late rice was mainly mild and moderate,and the frequency was generally 30~50%,and the frequency of severe cold dew was generally less than 10%.The annual occurrence range of cold dew wind was obviously different,and the severe degree disaster attacked patchy areas in 24%years and affected parts of Jiangxi in 14%years.The intensity of cold dew wind disaster showed a downward trend,and the intensity index of cold dew wind was continuously lower than the average level after 2014.