中巴农产品贸易竞争力优势与出口增长效应研究——基于中巴经济走廊建设背景

On Competitiveness Advantage and Export Growth Effect of Sino-Pakistan Agricultural Trade--In the Context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

中国和巴基斯坦均为传统的农业大国并互为重要的贸易伙伴。本文选取2006年—2018年的相关数据,对中巴农产品贸易竞争力优势和出口增长效应进行实证研究。研究表明:2018年中国农产品贸易竞争力具有较弱的比较优势和竞争优势,巴基斯坦农产品贸易竞争力具有很强的比较优势和较弱的竞争优势,双边农产品贸易均具有较大的潜在优势。2010年—2018年间,中国对巴基斯坦农产品出口增长效应快速提升,而巴基斯坦对中国农产品出口增长效应变动较小;中国对巴基斯坦农产品出口贸易前期主要受产业结构和价格竞争效应带来的负向影响,后期受价格竞争效应带来的正向影响;巴基斯坦对中国农产品出口贸易前期受产业结构效应带来的负向影响,后期受价格竞争效应带来的负向影响。

China and Pakistan are both traditional agricultural countries and important trading partners.This paper selects the relevant data from 2006 to 2018 to conduct an empirical study on the competitiveness advantage and export growth effect of China-Brazil agricultural trade.The research shows that in 2018,China's agricultural trade competitiveness has a weak comparative advantage and competitive advantage,while that of Pakistan has a strong comparative advantage and a weak competitive advantage,and both bilateral agricultural trade has a large potential advantage.From 2010 to 2018,the growth effect of China's agricultural exports on Pakistan increased rapidly,while the growth effect of Pakistan's agricultural exports on China changed little.In the early stage,China's agricultural export trade to Pakistan is mainly affected by the negative effects of industrial structure and price competition effect,while in the later stage,it is affected by the positive effects of price competition effect.Pakistan's export trade of agricultural products to China is negatively affected by industrial structure effect in the early stage and price competition effect in the late stage.