制度差异对我国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易关系的影响——基于随机前沿引力模型分析

The Influence of Institutional Differences on the Foreign Trade Relations between China and the Countries along the Belt and Road--Based on Stochasti c Frontier Gravity Model

本文选取2000年—2018年“一带一路”沿线56个国家的贸易数据,利用拓展的随机前沿引力模型从进出口贸易两个层面就制度差异对我国与“一带一路”沿线国家对外贸易关系的影响进行分析,结果显示制度差异总指标与我国进出口贸易均呈倒U形关系,说明在合理化范围内制度差异对出口贸易具有促进作用,超过合理化水平则会抑制出口贸易增长,同时抑制进口贸易市场的扩大。此外,通过构建制度差异分项指标模型,并与制度差异总指标进行对比得出,制度差异总指标与分项指标对进出口贸易量影响的差异明显,为此提出应完善进口贸易制度标准、加大对外宣传力度、保持经济环境的稳定性等建议。

The Belt and Road Initiative plays a strategic role in the foreign trade of China and the countries along the routes,and is an important measure for China to further expand its opening to the outside world.This paper selects trade data of 56 countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2018,using the expansion of the gravity of stochastic frontier model from two aspects:import and export trade to analyze the influence of of institutional differences on trade relations to China and countries along the Belt and Road.The results show that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the total index of institutional differences and China's import and export trade.It shows that the institutional differences within the rationalization scope have a promoting effect on the export trade,and more than the rationalization level will restrain the growth of the export trade and the expansion of the import trade market.In addition,by constructing the sub-index model of institutional differences and comparing it with the total index of institutional difference,it is concluded that the total index of institutional difference and the sub-index of institutional difference have significant differences in the impact on the volume of import and export trade.Therefore,it is suggested to improve the import trade system standard,enhance the external publicity,and ensure the stability of the economic environment.