农林牧副渔业板块上市企业信用风险评价指标体系研究

Evaluation of Credit Risk of Agricultural Listed Enterprises

本研究以农业领域上市企业为切入点,引入财务指标和宏观经济指标建立信用风险评价指标体系,首先采用主成分分析方法提取出五个公共因子克服多重共线性等问题,再构建Logistic二分类农业领域上市企业信用风险评价模型,并选取在上海证券交易所和深圳证券交易所A股农林牧副渔业板块上市的41家农业类企业为样本进行实证分析,结果表明:农业领域上市企业的现金流量和盈利能力是影响信用风险的重要因素,此外,在加入宏观经济指标后发现Logistic模型的预测准确率有所提高,预测效果较好,说明宏观经济指标也是研究农业领域上市企业信用风险的一个重要因素。因此,关注企业现金流和盈利,增强财务管理能力;提高企业抗风险能力,增强信用水平;稳步推进扶持政策,促进农业产业化经营。

The problem of "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" has always been the focus of attention in the current economic development. As the main force of agricultural development, the risks of agricultural listed companies represent the development quality of the whole agricultural enterprises. It is of practical significance to accurately and reliably measure its credit risk. Taking agricultural listed enterprises as the starting point, this research introduces financial index and macroeconomic index to establish credit risk evaluation index system. Firstly, five public factors are extracted by principal component analysis to overcome multiple collinearity, and then Logistic credit risk evaluation model of agricultural listed enterprises is constructed. By selecting 41 agricultural listed enterprises listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange, the results show that the cash flow and profitability of enterprises are important factors affecting credit risk. In addition, after adding macroeconomic indicators, it is found that the prediction accuracy of the Logistic model is improved and the prediction effect is better, which indicates that macroeconomic indicators are also an important factor to study the credit risk of agricultural listed enterprises. Finally, from the aspects of internal financial management, its own ability to resist risks and national macro-policy, some relevant suggestions are put forward to help the development of agricultural enterprises and constantly improve their credit level.