政府和社会资本合作项目(PPP)成本超支风险与防范

Research on Cost Overrun Risk and Prevention of Public-Private Partnership

分析不同生命周期阶段政府和社会资本合作项目(PPP)存在的成本超支风险,梳理出可行性决策阶段成本估算不精确、招标谈判阶段的主观预测偏差和谈判成本过高以及项目建设和运营阶段不确定因素多的三点风险,并剖析其成因,由此提出:可行性决策阶段政府部门可以采用纳入风险因素的项目成本估算方法,提高成本估算的准确性;招标谈判阶段政府部门可以通过增加合同条款降低社会资本人为的估算偏差,同时提高政府与社会资本的专业水平,提升谈判效率,防止招标谈判拖延导致的成本超支;建设和运营阶段项目公司应该严格控制项目的工期和成本,将项目延误带来的成本超支风险最小化,同时对社会资本或承包商的成本控制进行激励和约束,项目公司也可委托有经验的专业运营单位负责项目的运营管理,提高运营效率,降低成本超支风险等对策建议。

This study explores the risks of cost overruns from the different life cycle stages of Public-Private Partnership(PPP) projects, and sorts out the inaccurate cost estimates in the feasibility decision-making stage, the subjective forecast deviations in the bidding negotiation stage, and the high negotiation costand uncertain factors in the construction and operation stages.This study also proposes corresponding countermeasures. For example, at the feasibility decision-making stage, government departments can use project cost estimation methods that incorporate risk factors to improve the accuracy of cost estimation. At the bidding negotiation stage, government departments can reduce the artificial estimation deviation of private by increasing contract terms, improve the efficiency of negotiation, and prevent cost overruns caused by delays in negotiations. At the construction and operation stages, the project company should strictly control the project duration and cost, minimize the risk of cost overruns caused by project delays, encourage and restrain the cost control of social capital or contractors. The project company can alsoentrust experienced professional operating units to be responsible for the operation and management of the project, improve operation efficiency and reduce the risk of cost overruns.