西康德格藏族人口增长研究

Dege:A Revisit of Tibetan Population Growth

基于我国藏学家李安宅在《西康德格之历史与人口》一文中使用的1944年西康德格藏族人口调查数据,本研究补充了前后相近时期的总和生育率和婴幼儿死亡率等其他历史资料,并应用现代人口理论和人口分析方法对20世纪40年代的德格藏族人口的变化趋势进行了探索,初步结论如下:首先,该时期德格的人口死亡水平属于区域模型生命表的南方2型,总人口以年均约2%的速度负增长;其次,预测德格人口年龄分布及数量动态演变的莱斯利矩阵的特征值小于1,再次验证了德格人口的下降趋势。此外,本研究还讨论了1944年德格人口数据的可信度;并使用1954年尼泊尔人口普查报告统计的婴儿死亡率数据,推翻了西方藏学家关于20世纪上半叶西藏西南部的吉隆宗(县)人口以年均5‰速度增长的结论。

Based on the 1944 census data in the district of Dege of Sikang Province(Kham)used by Tibetologist Li An-Che in"Dege:A Study of Tibetan Population",this study supplements the historical data of the total fertility rate,infant mortality rate,and under 5 mortality rate in the neighboring periods,and applies modern population theory and population analysis methods to explore the trends of the Dege Tibetan population in the 1940 s.The conclusions are as follows:(1)The mortality of Dege population in this period fits the South Level 2 of the regional model life tables,the total population is negatively increasing at an average annual rate of about 2%.(2)The eigenvalue of Leslie’s matrix of Dege population growth is less than 1,which again verifies the downward trend of the population growth.In addition,this study discusses the credibility of Dege population census data in 1944.Using male and female infant mortality data from the 1954 Nepal Census Report,this paper challenges the conclusion that the Tibetan population of Kyirong in the southwest Tibet grows at an average annual rate of 5‰in the first half of the 20 th century.