基于人类发展指数框架的中国各地社会发展协调度分析

Analysis of the Coordination Degree of Social Development in China Based on the Framework of HDI

研究目标:基于人类发展指数框架,探究2000~2017年中国各地经济社会协调发展状况。研究方法:选用耦合协调度模型进行各省份系统内各指标协调度的研究分析;同时,在东、中、西、东北四大区域内各省份指标协调度分析的基础上,利用离差系数最小化模型,测算特定距离来衡量系统间协调程度。利用空间计量模型分析省际协调发展情况。研究发现:各省份协调度逐年稳步提高,但整体仍存在较大上升空间。横向来看,一方面,不仅不同区域协调发展程度存在差异,且在两类协调中也有所体现:区域协调较指标协调分层现象更明显,其中东部表现较好,中西部平稳发展,东北有明显掉队现象;另一方面,相邻省份间协调发展又存在明显的空间聚集性。纵向分析则发现,收入等因素对指标协调度拉动作用较强,碳排放则对其抑制效应更明显。研究创新:在HDI指数中新增了民生和可持续发展维度,能更准确反映当前中国各地区人类发展水平,并形成与五大发展理念相契合的协调度分析。将协调度分析分解为指标协调度和区域协调度,用于分析国家层面各省份的区域内协调度和区域间协调度,有利于分析地区之间经济社会综合发展的协调程度。研究价值:不仅探究了中国各地经济社会协调发展的现状和问题,而且为提升各地区经济社会的协调发展提出了适当的政策建议。

Research Objectives:Based on the human development index framework,this paper explore the coordinated economic and social development of various regions in China from 2000 to 2017.Research Methods:The coupling coordination degree model is used in the research and analyze the coordination degree of each index in each province system.At the same time,on the basis of the analysis of the index coordination degree of each province in the four major regions of East,Middle,West and Northeast,the dispersion coefficient minimization model is used to measure the degree of coordination between systems through distance.And the spatial econometric model is used to analyze the coordinated development among provinces.Research Findings:The degree of coordination among the provinces has steadily increased year by year,but there is still a large room for improvement as a whole.Horizontally,on the one hand,differences appear in various dimensions,not only in the degree of coordinated development of different regions,but also in two types of coordination:Compared with index coordination,regional coordination appears more obvious stratification phenomenon,and the East performs better,the Middle and West develop steadily,and the Northeast is obviously left behind.On the other hand,there exists spatial aggregation in the coordinated development of neighboring provinces.The longitudinal analysis shows that factors such as income and education have a strong pulling effect on the index coordination,while carbon emission has a more obvious restraining effect.Research Innovations:First,the dimension of people’s livelihood and sustainable development has been added to the HDI,which can more accurately reflect the current level of human development in various regions of China and form a coordination degree analysis consistent with the five development concepts.Second,the coordination degree analysis is decomposed into index coordination degree and regional coordination degree,which can be used to analyze the intra-regional coordination degree and inter-regional coordination degree of provinces and cities at the national level,which is conducive to analyze the degree of coordination of comprehensive economic and social development between regions.Research Value:It not only explored the status quo and problems of coordinated economic and social development in various parts of China,but also put forward appropriate policy recommendations for improving the coordinated economic and social development of various regions.