中国出口产品的贸易限制指数估算

Measurement of the Trade Restriction Index of China’s Exports

研究目标:构建出口贸易限制指数公式并估算中国出口产品的贸易限制指数。研究方法:系统GMM估计自价格效应,双边进口需求弹性和贸易限制指数推导及估算。研究发现:(1)在参与由发达国家跨国企业主导的国际分工过程中,中国出口的技术、资本密集型产品贸易限制指数较低;(2)以劳动力为比较优势而出口的劳动密集型产品,其贸易限制指数较高;(3)中国出口产品实际所面临的贸易保护程度要远高于关税。研究创新:将进口需求弹性和贸易限制指数测算从总体改进至双边,并据此对中国出口产品出口贸易限制指数进行估算。研究价值:为贸易保护程度量化提供新的方法,为中国开展多边贸易谈判提供事实依据。

Research Objectives:Construct the export trade restriction index formula and estimate the trade restriction index of China’s export products.Research Methods:Using system GMM to estimate self-price effects,deriving and estimating bilateral import demand elasticities and MA-OTRI.Research Findings:Firstly,In the process of participating in the international division of labor led by multinational enterprises in developed countries,the trade restriction index of technology and capital intensive products exported by China is relatively low.Secondly,the trade restriction index of labor-intensive products exported with the advantage of labor factor endowment is higher.Thirdly,the degree of trade protection that china’s exports faces actually is much higher than tariff.Research innovations:The import demand elasticities and TRI were improved from the general estimate to the bilateral estimate,and the TRI of China’s exports was estimated accordingly.Research Value:It provides a new method for quantifying the degree of trade protection and a factual basis for China to carry out multilateral trade negotiations.