贸易便利化对中国木质林产品出口东盟的三元边际影响研究

Study on the Ternary Marginal Influence of Trade Facilitation on the Export of Chinese Wood Products to ASEAN

通过测算2010—2017年中国-东盟自贸区贸易便利化水平及中国对东盟国家木质林产品出口增长的三元边际,利用扩展的引力模型分析贸易便利化对木质林产品出口增长三元边际的影响效应。结果表明:中国-东盟自贸区贸易便利化发展水平不均衡,程度普遍不高,存在较大提升空间;中国对东盟木质林产品出口增长主要由扩展边际带动,价格边际对贸易增长的促进作用大于数量边际;贸易便利化对木质林产品出口的三元边际均有显著的促进作用,但对数量边际的促进作用最大。基于此,提出加强海关电子信息口岸平台建设、提升金融和电子商务水平等改善贸易便利化环境条件的建议。

⑴Background——There is great potential for the development of China's export of wood products to ASEAN,reducing trade barriers,which is an important measure for China to further realize the market layout of trade diversification.⑵Methods——This study constructs a trade facilitation evaluation system to measure the level of trade facilitation,taking China's export of wood forest products to ASEAN as an example.At the same time,an extended gravity model is constructed to study the specific impact of trade facilitation on the expansion margin,price margin and quantity margin.The data come from the Global Competitiveness report(GCR),the Global Trade Promotion report(GETR),the Global Integrity Index report(CPI),the CEPII-BACI database,the World Bank database and the National Bureau of surveying and Mapping Geographic Information.⑶Results——The overall development level of trade facilitation in China-ASEAN Free Trade area is uneven,the degree of trade facilitation is generally not high,and there is much room for improvement.The level of trade facilitation of the member countries in the region is generally on the rise,with Singapore and Malaysia having a higher degree of convenience.China's degree of convenience is average,and the rest of the country's degree of convenience is generally low.The growth of China's exports of wood products to ASEAN is mainly driven by the expansion margin.The types of exports are rich and stable.And the effect of price margin on trade growth is greater than the quantity margin,as well the price margin of exports is stable at about 1,which means that the overall added value of China's exports of wood products to ASEAN is the world average.Trade facilitation has a significant positive impact on the expansion margin,price margin and quantity margin of the export of wood forest products.And trade facilitation has a greater effect on the quantity margin than the expansion margin and price margin.Each 1%increase in the overall level of trade facilitation in the seven ASEAN countries will lead to an increase of 0.427%,0.310%and 0.665%respectively in the expansion margin,price margin and quantity margin of exports.Different trade facilitation measures have different effects on the export margin.Each 1%increase in the customs environment will increase the export expansion margin by 1.359%.Each 1%increase in the financial and e-commerce institutional environment will increase the margin of export expansion by 0.772%,and export prices and volumes will increase by 0.395%and 4.186%,respectively.For each 1%increase in the institutional environment,the export types of Chinese wood products will decrease by 0.77%.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The positive impact of trade facilitation on Chinese wood products exports to ASEAN is significant,but the overall trade facilitation development level of CAFTA countries is uneven and the degree of trade facilitation is generally not high.Therefore,targeted trade facilitation reforms would be conducive to boosting trade growth in Chinese wood product exports to ASEAN:①With the help of the policy support of China's“Belt and Road Initiative”,we will promote the Internet construction of ASEAN countries,and promote an appropriate cross-border e-commerce trade model between the two countries.②We will strengthen financial cooperation between China and ASEAN countries and promote settlement based on the RMB cross-border payment system.③It is expected to strengthen the construction of customs electronic information port platform,to actively carry out AEO mutual recognition among countries,and to gradually realize the interconnection between cross-regional customs.④It is necessary to further enhance the added value of exported woody forest products,and to produce distinctive and differentiated products in order to meet different market needs.