基于空间杜宾模型的广东省港口与城市经济空间效应研究

Study on spatial effect between ports and their city economy in Guangdong province based on spatial Durbin model

为分析港口与城市经济的空间效应,选取2007—2019年广东省16个港口及其所在城市的数据,在用Moran’s I指数检验空间相关性的基础上,构建空间杜宾模型。研究结果表明:港口与城市经济之间存在显著的空间相关性;在时间维度上,港口与城市经济之间的空间相关性较为稳定,港口货物吞吐能力的空间相关性呈上升趋势,港口硬件规模的空间相关性呈上升趋势;城市经济存在正向空间溢出效应;港口货物吞吐能力对城市经济有正向的直接效应,且长期效应大于短期效应,而港口硬件规模对城市经济只有正向的短期效应;港口货物吞吐能力对城市经济具有正向空间溢出效应,且长期效应大于短期效应,而港口硬件规模对城市经济的空间溢出效应不显著。

In order to analyze the spatial effect of ports and their city economy,the data of 16 ports and their cities in Guangdong Province from 2007 to 2019 are chosen,Moran’s I index is used to test spatial correlation,and a spatial Durbin model is constructed.The research results are the following:there is a significant spatial correlation between ports and city economy;in the time dimension,the spatial correlation between ports and their city economy is relatively stable,the spatial correlation of port cargo throughput capacity is on the rise,and the spatial correlation of port hardware scale is on the rise;the city eco-nomy has a positive spatial spillover effect;the port cargo throughput capacity has a positive direct effect on the city economy,and the long-term effect is greater than the short-term effect;the scale of port hardware has only a positive short-term effect on the city economy;the port cargo throughput capacity has a positive spatial spillover effect on the city economy,and the long-term effect is greater than the short-term effect;the spatial spillover effect of the scale of port hardware on the city economy is not significant.